Will CPI come in hot???? Why BTC halving is IMPORTANT!

Good morning TORG Traders,

I hope you had a great weekend. We have inflation coming in this week on Wednesday. We will go over the macro data from last week and preview into CPI for this week. Lets get into it!

Remember this is all my opinion and none of this is financial advice.

Also, I wanted to mention that May is Williams Syndrome Awareness month, so if you find it in your hearts please look to donate to the WSA here: TORG Trading William’s Syndrome Team

It was almost a year ago when we found out that my daughter was diagnosed with Williams Syndrome. About 70% of people with Williams Syndrome have star-like pattern in the iris, which is most visible with blue or green eyes. Sloane gets a lot of compliments on her beautiful baby blues! 😃 

Macro News RESULTS from previous week!!

• FOMC - Fed Meeting - Jerome Powell’s Speech

  • Jerome and the rest of the Fed decided to increase the rate by .25% or 25 bps

• Unemployment Data

  • The unemployment data was a big miss in the market.

  • More jobs were added in the tune of 253k versus the forecasted 180k

  • Unemployment actually went down to 3.4% from 3.6%

This means that the Fed might have to continue to hike rates because people are not becoming unemployed. We will see when more data is released like CPI this week.

Macro News to WATCH this week!!

• CPI - Inflation (Wed at 8:30 am EST)

  • Forecast for CPI Headline is 5.0% (YoY) and .4% (MoM)

  • Forecast for CPI Core is 5.5% (YoY) and .4% (MoM)

• PPI - Producer Price Index (Thurs at 8:30 am EST)

  • Forecast for Core PPI (MoM) .2%

  • Forecast for PPI (MoM .3%

These two data points will let the Fed understand what is going on with inflation and producer price index. Forecast is pretty similar to what lines up with the previous month for inflation. PPI was both negative last month and will see how this comes in for this month. The Producer Price Index measure the change of price of goods sold by manufacturers.

Markets will be volatile on these days from 8:30 am until 10 am EST.

Crypto News

I talked about the Bitcoin halving in the last newsletter and I wanted to discuss this more in depth. First, I want to show you a daily chart of $BTC:

The red vertical lines are when the halving happened in the past. The yellow lines are when $BTC bottomed before the halving. Roughly the past two have been between 508 and 540 days. If BTC is expected to halve in May 2024 then we are right in the range of when BTC should have bottomed if the cycle repeats itself.

Metals: Gold broke its all time high last week almost up to $2100. I’d watch it continue to hold the $1975 as the low in the range. If it cannot hold here then next level is $1885 to $1935. Silver topped $26 last week and I would look for it to hold $24.50. If it cannot hold there then I’d look for the next support at $21.50 to $22.

Energy: I still like Natural gas in this area as its accumulating. The risk here is so low versus the reward. If it can continue to make higher highs and higher lows then you can see a good run up to the April high of $3. Oil dropped last week all the way down to $63. This is a pretty big liquidity sweep and is not trading back at $73. If it can hold $71.80 then I’d look for it to retest the $76 and up to $80.

DXY: Dollar decreased quite a bit last week going from 102.50 down to 101. Support in the range is 100.75 and then if it breaks here it could go down to 99.3. If the DXY continues to accumulate to make a move up to 103.80 then I’d expect equities and crypto to dip.

Crypto Charts

Going to get right into the $BTC and $ETH charts.

$BTC

Summary / Points of interest short term:

$BTC cannot get enough momentum to break back through $30k as it created a lower high last week. If we lose the low under the Range POC then I can see it going down to retest the lows of $27k and possibly going to sweep $25.2k.

Points of interest in the long run (this hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• I expect BTC to retest the $25.2k since that imbalance hasn’t been filled. I still think we test $20k to $22k in this run at some point, so if you feel like you missed out then I still think we have that area to retest on liquidity.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• On the hourly it doesn’t look good. We are just getting into money flow being red and there is a pretty heavy momentum wave. Until we see a trigger wave after an anchor wave, then I’d be looking for shorts. Go back and see how Market Cipher looked right under the orange FVG fill zone from April 21st to April 25th for what I’d be looking for on entering a long.v

$ETH

Summary/Points of interest short term:

$ETH couldn’t fill the FVG this past week, so I still think that area is in play as long as we don’t lose the low of the range at $1750. I’d be looking at sweeps down at $1750 to enter into a trade to get us back to clear the FVG zone up at $2k. In order for momentum to go to the upside, the liquidity needs to come from down below. If $ETH front runs the lows it’ll be around $1800.

Points of interest in the long run (hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• Long term bias has not changed here. I think that we will retest this current point of control (red line on the chart) at $1550. That was the area where ETH was before the FTX collapse, so it’s a significant area of interest for people. We could wick back down to test liquidity in the $1485 area, but do not plan on it.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• Hourly money flow is not as thick as $BTC. There could be a little bit more momentum in $ETH this week to the upside. I still would look for shorts until you see a sweep and a reclaim of a bullish order block with an anchor and trigger wave on the red money flow which signals momentum turning and going back to the upside.

$SOL

Summary:

$SOL was the biggest winner of the last bull run from the mainstream coins topping $200, but was also the biggest loser from the FTX crash going below $10. $SOL can be very volatile with movements in $ETH, thats why I like to take a look at it because it can move better and you can make more % here.

You have a protected high and a protected low from an hour range. I would look for $SOL to sweep the liquidity area at $20.31 and reclaim the range or if it cannot hold here then I’d look for the bottom S/R flip zone at $18.92 to hold.

What Am I Currently Reading?

I picked up a non-trading book with Man’s Search for Meaning by Viktor E. Frankl. A friend of mine told me about it since I was dealing with a lot after my dad passed away. This has really helped understand what I have to offer in life and is a good way to really focus on what is important to you while you’re here on earth.

Pictures for the week:

We planted our garden and want to show you the three stages it went through.

First Stage: I didn’t take anything off from last fall and let my garden go, so this was how it was about a month ago. A lot of dead plants and it needed a lot of cleanup.

Second Stage: After I cleared out the dead plants, I was able to get a tiller in to work up the dirt and start to pluck out the new weeds that started growing in.

Third Stage: I tilled the garden one more time and was able to get the garden planted with the help of my two daughters and wife.

I spent around 6 hours getting everything from cleaned up to planted. Why I’m telling you this is if you focus on cleaning up areas in your life that you want to focus on, then it starts with just a couple of minutes a day to begin to implement the change.

I appreciate you reading the fourth edition of my newsletter. If you found this helpful, please share the subscribe link with anyone you think would find it helpful as well. Also, please email me any feedback, so I can continue to give you information that you want to read. Hope you have a great weekend. God bless.