Fed Meeting, Unemployment Data, BIG MACRO WEEK! Is there a ticking time bomb in the markets????

Good morning TORG Traders,

I hope you had a great weekend. This is a pretty big macro week when you look at the meetings ahead with FOMC and the Jerome coming to the stage on Wednesday and then you get payroll information on Friday. Since you received the events from last week on Friday, we are just going to highlight the information coming up this week and get into some charts. Lets get into it!

Remember this is all my opinion and none of this is financial advice.

Also, I wanted to mention that May is Williams Syndrome Awareness month, so if you find it in your hearts please look to donate to the WSA here: TORG Trading William’s Syndrome Team

It was almost a year ago when we found out that my daughter was diagnosed with Williams Syndrome. She is the happiest kid out there, but I still want to raise awareness this month, so I’ll be putting in some information about Williams Syndrome such as only 1 in 10,000 kids born in the US have Williams Syndrome which is as lucky as finding a four leaf clover 😃 

Macro News to WATCH!!!

• FOMC - Fed Meeting - Jerome Powell’s Speech

  • This happens on Wednesday this week and usually there is a whole bunch of volatility. If you are not in a position by Tuesday, then I would wait until you get the data on Wednesday and make a decision on which way you think the markets will trade.

  • Currently the Fed rate is at 5.00%.

  • 83.9% of people are expecting a raise in rates by .25% or 25 bps.

    • Keep your eyes on the poll here: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

  • The expected forecast per Investing.com is .25% or 25 bps.

  • If price is at 25 bps then probably not much happens in the market. If there is 50 bps then probably a bearish type sentiment. If there is 0 bps or a cut then a bullish type sentiment.

• Unemployment Data

  • This happens on Friday this week and really the key here to look for is what has unemployment done since March report.

  • Forecast is expected to be 180k and the previous was 236k.

  • Unemployment % is another one to look at as well.

    • Forecast at 3.6% and previous was 3.5%.

  • People will be looking at this data because if unemployment is going up then the Fed MIGHT be able to slow down rate hikes. Powell and the govt want to see more pain within the workforce and see inflation come down. Until we get those two factors, then the Fed cannot do much of anything.

Jerome is just waiting to print more money, but it might have to wait longer.

Crypto News

Bitcoin is approximately 363 days away from its next halving. You can monitor that here: https://www.coinwarz.com/mining/bitcoin/halving

It’s important to keep this on your radar because if you want to buy $BTC then you’ll want to do it this year and before the next halving. Do not be left out in the cold or sidelined this time when headlines talks about Bitcoin because that’s when it’ll be time to sell.

Metals: Gold traded under $2,000 this week. It needs to hold $1,970 or else price will test $1,950 down to $1,860. Silver traded under $25. Needs to hold $24.50 or else price will test low $24s; next stop is $23.50 after that area. (Yes this is the same info from Friday)

Energy: Natural gas is looking sexy up to the $3 range. I think its a good accumulation area right now for a long term hold back up to $7 to $8. This was trading at $8 in November. Oil topped out at $83 and is trading at $75. I’d look for it to hold $71 to try and get back to $83 and if it can get through that level then $90 is on the table. (Yes this is the same info from Friday)

DXY: The US Dollar looks like its in an accumulation area on the hourly chart. If the Dollar rips, then I would expect the equity and crypto market to head the other way.

Crypto Charts

This week is going to be about liquidity sweeps. What does that mean? You will take a look at your range highs and your range lows (usually on the hourly time frame) and when you see a candle come in and sweep it and take out the stops, then the price will reverse. This is due to the news this week. I think we are going to see some volatility. Should setup well to make some good money this week in the markets, but only if you have a gameplan.

Also, we are in a new month for crypto. Historically, May has not been a good month for being bullish on crypto. The saying usually is sell in May and walk away. Play the chart both ways and make money.

$BTC

Summary:

$BTC is pretty simple. Reclaim the FVG (tapped it 3 times) and we push higher. If we sweep liquidity above there again, then expect some downside. You can see where I put the downside liquidity sweeps I’ll be eyeing this week for $BTC. The higher one is there just because we have been in this range and if we sweep there then could push to the higher range, if we get more downside then could finally sweep down to $25.2k.

Points of interest short term:

• Upside

  • $30k - Plain and simple need to break the FVG fill zone and hold it as support to move up and test the protected high.

• Downside

  • $28.8k - I want to see BTC hold this S/R flip zone, but if it doesn’t then I’d look at $28k (range point of control) and $26.9k (the low in this range).

Points of interest in the long run:

• I expect BTC to retest the $25.2k since that imbalance hasn’t been filled. I still think we test $20k to $22k in this run at some point, so if you feel like you missed out then I still think we have that area to retest on liquidity.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• On the hourly we spent the weekend in the red and are undecided at the moment. On the 4 hour we have crossed into the green, so this is why I wanted to add the first sweep area to the list at $28.9k because if we sweep there then it drive the price higher to look at breaking $30k.

$ETH

Summary:

Not much has changed from Friday. The weekly actually printed a red dot on Market Cipher last week, so we might see more downside before upside. As you can see on the market up chart the circle is the low that I’d be watching to be swept. The green line is one of my plans for this week with a sweep below that liquidity area and then look to test the higher liquidity of the range.

$ETH also tapped the S/R flip zone for the third time today and couldn’t break it, to that tells me might need to gain more momentum before it breaks which means taking liquidity from further down.

Points of interest short term:

• Upside

  • $1950 - Plain and simple, $ETH needs to reclaim this area in order to move up to fill the FVG at $2060.

• Downside

  • $1780 to $1750 - This is the liquidity sweep zone I’d watch.

Points of interest in the long run:

• Long term bias has not changed here. I think that we will retest this current point of control (red line on the chart) at $1550. That was the area where ETH was before the FTX collapse, so it’s a significant area of interest for people. We could wick back down to test liquidity in the $1485 area, but do not plan on it.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• Hourly moneyflow has been choppy all weekend. We zoom out to the 4 hour and that is still in the red which means money is flowing out of the asset. This is why I think we look at a little bit more downside.

$APT

Summary:

$APT was launched in October 2022. This is a Layer 1 blockchain that enables proof of stake. You can research more here: https://aptoslabs.com/

Clearly $APT is in a nice range here with a protected high and a protected low. It is coming up on mid-channel so plain and simple here is what I’d be looking for on this coin: Hold the order block around $10.22 - $9.90. If it loses that area then I’d look for the protected low to be swept and then head back to the protected high.

I’m not going to go into Market Cipher on this one because this one is a pretty easy laid out plan on the hourly chart.

$BNB

Summary:

$BNB is the native token for the Binance exchange. This has been a good token to play over the past couple of weeks as it’s had some really clean zones. Learn more about $BNB here: https://www.binance.com/en/bnb

In the middle of writing this, a nice opportunity came my way to take a short on this token, so I’m looking for $BNB to fill the FVG at $326. I’d want to have it hold this level as support after filling the FVG. If it does then it goes and rests the liquidity higher at $340 range. If it breaks down at $326 then it’ll go retest the lows at $315.

This is a weekly play and want to just highly the areas I’m interested in doing business in.

What Am I Currently Reading?

I’m currently still reading The Wyckoff Methodology in Depth by Ruben Villahermosa Chaves. I’m getting into the final 20 pages before the case studies where he wraps it all together and puts it into a nice summary. This gets you to look at the markets very different. One of the best items that I read recently was about underlying strength or weakness. This can help you determine which way that price will move based on how price is reacting in certain areas in accumulation/distribution structures. Highly recommended this book. I’ll have a new book next week!

Picture of the weekend:

Oslo is getting used to his crate and his safe place.

I appreciate you reading the third edition of my newsletter. If you found this helpful, please share the subscribe link with anyone you think would find it helpful as well. Also, please email me any feedback, so I can continue to give you information that you want to read. Hope you have a great weekend. God bless.