Dollar shoots up! Markets fall!

Good afternoon TORG Traders,

I hope you had a great weekend. We have a pretty quiet week when it comes to macro news this week. You have retail stores that are releasing their earnings this week, so might be some good information on how consumer purchases are going.

Remember this is all my opinion and none of this is financial advice.

Also, I wanted to mention that May is Williams Syndrome Awareness month, so if you find it in your hearts please look to donate to the WSA here: TORG Trading WSA Fundraiser

Congenital Heart Disease (CHD), or heart defects that are present at birth, affect 75-90% of people with Williams Syndrome (WS). The reason for this is people with WS are missing one copy of the elastin (ELN) gene, so their bodies produce half the normal amount of a protein called elastin. The job of elastin is to help the blood vessels grow and be stretchy, but with less elastin, the blood vessels are too narrow and too firm.

One major mystery with WS that is being researched is why some kids with WS have severe life threatening heart defects while others have mild or none, when all of them are missing the ELN gene! We believe there are multiple versions of the ELN gene, and multiple ways the ELN gene interacts with other genes. More research is needed on the cardiovascular implications of WS.

Sloane had two visits with the cardiologist in 2022. They did echos and EKGs on her to see how healthy her heart is. Luckily for her, she has a really good and strong heart, but will continue to need to be monitored as she grows. 😃 

TORG Trading Launches a PODCAST!!!!

I launched my first episode of the podcast last week where I interview Ordinary People who became Extraordinary Traders. I bring light to the stories of individuals who tell their story about their life before trading and how trading has let them have freedom in life.

First episode is here and the second will be released this week:

Macro News RESULTS from previous week!!

• Headline and Core CPI

  • YoY CPI came in .1% lower than the previous and beat the forecast. The Fed still wants to get inflation down to 2%.

  • MoM CPI came in as forecasted but higher than the previous month and Core CPI was .1% higher than forecasted but the same as the previous month.

  • Inflation is a mixed bag here in my opinion. You have data on a monthly basis that is going up, but you’re going down annually. I think the Fed will have some major decisions coming up in June and July before they go on break in August.

• PPI

  • MoM Core PPI came in at .2% which is the same as forecasted

  • MoM Headline PPI came in at .2% which is .1% below the forecast

• Unemployment Claims came in at 264k versus 245k forecasted

I think the Fed has a major problem on their hands with the data that is being presented. They need to figure out a plan which might be to increase the rate hikes or else we could see a possible stagflation come upon the country which would not be good. Stagflation is persistent high inflation combined with high unemployment and stagnant demand in a country’s economy. Something to keep an eye on with all the data.

Macro News to WATCH this week!!

There really is much news this week, but there are a lot of Fed members that speak during the week. Jerome is getting on the main stage on Friday at 11 am. Whenever Jerome gets on stage, the market volatility gets turned up.

There is some housing/building data that gets released (home sale data, building permits) this week along with crude oil inventories and the the Fed’s balance sheet.

Crypto News

We have been focused on in the BTC halving and wanted to switch over to ETH this week and discuss ETH since a major milestone last September call the Merge.

The Merge allowed ETH to switch to proof-of-stake and switch from mining rigs to staking ETH to create future blocks. Previously people had mining rigs that solved an algorithm to mine new blocks which you were rewarded ETH; now it takes 32 ETH staked in order to create a pool to be able to create the blocks and get rewards.

Also, this switch now made ETH deflationary which means that the supply is decreasing instead of increasing.

You can learn more about the Merge event here: The Merge

Metals: Gold held the $2,000 range for the week. I’d watch it continue to hold the $1975 as the low in the range. If it can hold the lower range, then possibly might have enough momentum to retest the highs. If it cannot hold here then next level is $1885 to $1935. Silver possibly double topped on the 4 hour chart. If silver cannot get through $25.10 then it’s going to test lower liquidity down in the 21s.

Energy: I might have been early on Natural gas, but starting to see it move up a little bit. Watch for it to go and test $2.60 to $3.00 this week. Still like this for a longer term holding as I discussed last week. Oil wasn’t very volatile last week. Crude inventory report this week, so could see some volatility in the oil market. Watch for $69 to hold and then see for momentum to the upside. Low that needs to hold the range is $63.91.

DXY: Well the accumulation of the dollar caused it to rise kind of like what was discussed in the last newsletter. I think the dollar goes for a test of 103.88 this week which means equities and cryptos will most likely decrease.

Crypto Charts

Going to get right into the $BTC and $ETH charts.

$BTC

Summary / Points of interest short term:

$BTC couldn’t hold the Range POC and went down to test the $25k range last week. $BTC didn’t fill the imbalance at $25.2k. I wanted to zoom out to show you some of the lower ranges that could possibly happen below the current range. I would look for $25.2k range again this week for a sweep down there on that S/R flip zone and then it might gain enough momentum to go test the range POC and then the highs again. If we lose $25.2k, then you can see where the liquidity lies below. WATCH THE DXY WITH BTC!!

Points of interest in the long run (this hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• I expect BTC to retest the $25.2k since that imbalance hasn’t been filled. I still think we test $20k to $22k in this run at some point, so if you feel like you missed out then I still think we have that area to retest on liquidity.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• On the hourly it doesn’t look good at the moment. We have a red money flow and then a very small trigger wave above the 0 line which means not much momentum on the upside. What I would be looking for is that dip down to $25.2k and then a small trigger wave below the 0 line and money flow heading back to the green.

$ETH

Summary/Points of interest short term:

$ETH broke the low and went down to sweep the $1750 area. It is like I planned it out for the week. Just a beautiful setup to get short last week! I would look for ETH to test the S/R flip zone and if it breaks and hold as support then I’d look for it to go test the highs again. If the S/R flip zone is resistance then I’d look for it to go test $1750 or lower.

Points of interest in the long run (hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• Long term bias has not changed here. I think that we will retest this current point of control (red line on the chart) at $1550. That was the area where ETH was before the FTX collapse, so it’s a significant area of interest for people. We could wick back down to test liquidity in the $1485 area, but do not plan on it.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• Hourly money flow is more in the green than $BTC, so I think it could go test higher before retesting the liquidity at $1750. Sometimes BTC and ETH move differently and that is why you should also keep an eye on ETH/BTC chart. I will go over that next week in Crypto News. ETH long might be a good hedge on a BTC short.

$CHZ

Summary:

$CHZ also known as Chiliz was a big winner during the world cup because there were a lot of fan coins that launched on their blockchain. You can learn more about Chiliz here: Chiliz

Looking at the hourly chart, CHZ is in the middle of a channel in my opinion. Here is what I’m looking for on the chart. If CHZ goes and retests the S/R flip zone and it acts as resistance then I’d look for a short down to the protected low. If price breaks through the S/R flip and holds as support then I’d watch it to fill the FVG zone (that is a daily FVG btw). If CHZ cannot break a previous high then it could go right down to the protected low.

What Am I Currently Reading?

We went on a business trip down to Florida and I decided to pick up another book to read just to continue my trading mindset. I started Trading in the Zone by Mark Douglas. The first two chapters are mind blowing and how to really change your mindset as a trader. A little sneak peek is that if you do not have a set of rules, if you cannot take accountability and if you are always blaming another factor instead of yourself then you will not be a successful trader.

Picture for the week:

There is time for work and there is time for relaxation. I learned from this past week that in order to get 1% better every day you have to spend 14 mins and 24 secs doing that one thing to move the needle. I look at the charts daily, but there is a time to dive into the charts and there is a time to skim the charts. This week was a skim and I made some good trades just because I have my system in place and my rules. Remember to take time and enjoy life and relax.

Trade from last week:

Here is one of my trades from last week that was successful. I think showing you my success could help you that you can even learn how to do this on the side if you want. This was on a memecoin that I felt had run and was due for some downside. This is possible as long as you can manage the risk and have your system.

I appreciate you reading the fifth edition of my newsletter. If you found this helpful, please share the subscribe link with anyone you think would find it helpful as well. Also, please email me any feedback, so I can continue to give you information that you want to read. Hope you have a great week. God bless.