Is $BTC heating up to explode????

Good morning TORG Traders,

I had to take a week off last week. As some of you may know, I lost my father in January and we had a service last Sunday celebrating his life and many other lives from who was taken care of in hospice care. I apologize for not putting out content….the only item from last week I really cared about was the talks about the debt ceiling.

We have unemployment data this week….CPI on June 12th, then the FOMC meeting on June 14th-15th….

Oh we also have Quad Witching Day in June, which I will explain later in the newsletter.

Remember this is all my opinion and none of this is financial advice.

This is the last week that I’ll be celebrating Williams Syndrome as May is coming to an end. If you find it in your hearts please look to donate to the WSA here: TORG Trading WSA Fundraiser

Usually kids with Williams Syndrome do no walk until around 2 years old. Sloane started walking at around 20 months and right now she is walking 85% of the time 😃 

TORG Trading Podcast Episode 2 Part 1

The second episode focuses on funded trading and how you can get qualified using prop firm money to build your own wealth.

Macro News RESULTS from previous week!!

• Initial Jobless Claims

  • 229k versus 225k from the previous month, but less than the forecasted 249k. I don’t think unemployment claims are up enough for the Fed’s liking.

• Core PCE (Price Consumer Expenditures)

  • .4% versus .3% from last month and the forecast was .3%.

• Debt Ceiling Agreement

  • Biden and McCarthy agreed to raise the debt ceiling for 2 years. This needs to be signed by June 5th.

Macro News to WATCH this week!!

Payrolls, payrolls, payrolls….that is really all I care about.

• 160k forecasted versus 230k previous month.

• Unemployment rate is forecasted at 3.5% versus 3.4% previous month

The Fed is banking on less jobs and higher unemployment which will let them look at reducing the rate hikes. If you’ve been reading my previous newsletters, then you know what I’m looking at for the Fed to start reducing the rate.

Crypto News

I had coffee with an ex banker friend of mine last week. He brought up the Fed Now Program and how it is the governments way to possibly fight against crypto. Crypto was made to be able to complete transactions in a timely fashion between people and not have a central regulation involved. On the weekends, I can send crypto to a person to pay for a service or a good and they will get it. You pay a small fee and it is recorded on the blockchain.

The Fed Now Program is a new instant payment infrastructure developed by the Federal Reserve that allows financial institutions of every size across the U.S. to provide safe and efficient instant payments services which will launch in July 2023. Through financial institutions participating in the FedNow Service, businesses and individuals can send and receive instant payments in real time, around the clock, every day of the year.

This sounds great and all, but you’re still dealing with a centralized system where you have a nucleus in the way. If you’re wanting to stay out of the centralized system and continue to do business with peers and do it the right way, then I suggest you continue to utilize crypto.

More info on the FedNow Program

Metals: Gold fell below $2,000. It is accumulating at the $1947 level at the moment. $1954 is resistant area that would need to be reclaimed to move back to $2000. If I’d watch it continue to hold the $1975 as the low in the range. $1934 is the bottom of this range and if it cannot hold then we will be looking at the $1880s. Silver looking to find where it will find accumulation. Right now Silver is at $23.25 and got as low $22.67. I’d be watching it to hold $22.85 to $23.15 to head back up to the high $24s to low $25s.

Energy: Natural Gas went and touched $2.60. Anything in the low $2s is a buy at the moment. I’m continuing to be bullish on Natural Gas up to $8. The risk reward here is just too good in my opinion. Oil has been trading in a range and has been boring, but these are when you’ll see the times that people fall asleep and get mad when they miss the big move. Since May 3rd, Oil has been putting in higher highs and higher lows. It is accumulating. Clear $76, you’re going to around $83. Don’t clear $76, then I’d be looking at range lows of $62 to $66.

DXY: The dollar accumulation played out as we saw some puking in the crypto and equities market. Right now looking at 103.88 to hold as support and then go test 105.83. If the dollar cannot hold 103.88 as support then I’d look at 103.66 to hold or even further down to 101.60.

Crypto Charts

Going to get right into the $BTC and $ETH charts.

$BTC

Summary / Points of interest short term:

$BTC swept the Range POC and what I’m looking for is for $BTC to retake the Range POC. If it sweeps the highs again then I think we will go and retest some lows of this range. If it can reclaim the Range POC then I think we will look to go retest $30k. Pretty simple this week.

Points of interest in the long run (this hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• We went down to test $25.4k and is close to the $25.2k. I still think we test $20k to $22k in this run at some point, so if you feel like you missed out then I still think we have that area to retest on liquidity.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• $BTC is heavy in the green with some good anchor waves. The RSIs are split. When the RSIs are split, that means there isn’t as much strength. If we get a sweep of the range POC again, I expect to see a small trigger wave form with money flow starting to turn down from green to red. At this point, it would be a good short signal. If price can reclaim the Range POC then I’d expect a bigger anchor wave again and a thicker money flow.

$ETH

Summary/Points of interest short term:

$ETH got as low as $1737 and then reclaimed $1750 and used momentum to retest $1900s. If $ETH sweeps $1900 then. I think we fill that FVG gap and see if we can move higher, if it fails to hold the FVG gap then I think we head back down to see the lows. If we can reclaim the highs of $1900 as support then I think we can go back and retest $2000.

Points of interest in the long run (hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• Long term bias has not changed here. I think that we will retest this current point of control (red line on the chart) at $1550. That was the area where ETH was before the FTX collapse, so it’s a significant area of interest for people. We could wick back down to test liquidity in the $1485 area, but do not plan on it.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• Hourly money flow is in the green, but the RSIs are split. Nice anchor wave and if we see a sweep of the highs then I would expect a small trigger wave with the money flow turning down red.

$INJ

Summary:

$INJ coin is a blockchain that specializes in finance apps. You can learn more about $INJ here: INJ Coin

Looking at the hourly chart, INJ is near the top of the range. I think if we get another sweep of either the protected high or the upside liquidity then we can look to short it down to the S/R flip zone or the protected low. As you can see money flow on the hourly is super thick and strong. I would start looking at shorts once money flow starts turning down and getting weaker with a small trigger wave above 0 and a sweep of the highs. If $INJ can keep the S/R flip area then I would look at a move even higher than the liquidity up above.

What Am I Currently Reading?

I have two chapters left with Trading in the Zone. It’s been a really good book for my psychology and how I look at the markets. It will take work to retrain your brain, but I think it’s a great read for anyone who is looking at getting into trading or in business. It’s an all around great book for psychology. The biggest takeaway right now is being able to accept risk and not blame any outside factor and to always be looking at opportunities in the markets.

Picture for the week:

We enjoy hiking as a family and as it is getting nicer out, we try to take advantage of this as it helps build our bond and it also lets us exercise. I find getting outside and moving our bodies helps with a lot of different items with your physical body and your mental state. It lets you just be free from the charts, the markets, the business, anything that is bothering you and enjoy what God has made. I recommend trying to get outside at least once a day for 30 to 45 minutes.

Trade from last week:

Here is one of my trades from last week that was successful. ETH ended up having a pretty big dump and I took advantage of putting a long on while everyone else was selling. I risked $250 on this trade. Before I enter I trade, I know my entries and exits and what I’m risking.

I appreciate you reading the sixth edition of my newsletter. If you found this helpful, please share the subscribe link with anyone you think would find it helpful as well. Also, please email me any feedback, so I can continue to give you information that you want to read. Hope you have a great week. God bless.