CRYPTO IS DEAD!!!

Good morning TORG Traders,

Last week was a very calm week on the macroeconomics level, but there was plenty of news in regards to crypto which I’ll talk about more in depth below.

This week we have a lot of major news:

June 13th: CPI

June 14th: PPI and FOMC

June 16th: Quad Witching Day

TORG Trading Podcast Episode 2 Part 2

Part 2 of the second episode is out and this really focuses on how BelX went through his funding tests and what lessons he learned.

Macro News RESULTS from previous week!!

• Initial Jobless Claims

  • 261k versus 235k forecasted and 233k previous week

  • This might actually lead to the Fed looking at rate hikes this week

Macro News to WATCH this week!!

Inflation data, FOMC, PPI, OH MY!

• CPI - June 13th at 8:30 am

  • Core CPI MoM - .4% forecasted with .4% previous

  • Core CPI YoY - 5.3% forecasted with 5.5% previous

  • Headline CPI MoM - .2% forecasted with .4% previous

  • Headline CPI YoY - 4.1% forecasted versus 4.9% previous

  • If CPI comes in under the forecasted or at least under the previous then could give good ammo to the Fed to slow rate hikes.

• FOMC - June 14th at 2:00 pm

  • Forecasted 5.25% with previous at 5.25%

  • Currently 75% think that rates stay the same or they go lower

  • Here is where you can check the percentages: https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html

• PPI - June 14th at 8:30 am

  • Core PPI MoM - .2% forecasted with .2% previous

  • PPI MoM - (.1%) forecasted with .2% previous

  • Remember PPI measures the consumer price inflation - higher means that goods are still costing more to consumers and lower means

I would watch the CPI’s impact on the FOMC. The PPI will not effect the decision of the Fed, but will cause some volatility that morning.

What is Quad Witching Day?

Quad Witching Day happens 4 times per year. The term quadruple witching refers to the simultaneous expiration four times a year of stock options, index futures, and index futures options derivatives contracts. The fourth type of contract involved in quadruple witching, single-stock futures, hasn't traded in the U.S. since 2020 and was never a major contributor to equity trading volumes.

How does this effect markets? Equity trading volume tends to rise on these days and is typically heaviest during the last hour of trading as traders adjust their portfolios.

Here are some resources to learn more about Quad Witching:

Crypto News

What a week it was! The US SEC came down hard on the crypto market, in particular to Binance and Coinbase. Now it seems that is has always been an issue over the past couple of years about what a security is in crypto and what is not a security. The XRP case has been ongoing and is really going to be what determines what a security is in the future. The US Govt and SEC are using a test that dates back to the stone ages called The Howey Test. You can learn more about that here.

Binance: SEC is suing the exchange on numerous violations. Read more here. Binance is also delisting their USD pairings and will only allow USDT pairings to become a fully crypto trading platform.

Coinbase: The SEC charged Coinbase with operating its crypto asset trading platform as an unregistered national securities exchange, broker and clearing agency. The SEC also charge Coinbase for failing to register the offer and sale of its crypto asset staking-as-a-service program. Read more here

Robinhood delists 3 of their crypto assets based on what the SEC is considering a security. The 3 assets were Cardano (ADA), Polygon (MATIC) and Solana (SOL).

Here is a graphic that shows what SEC is deemed a security:

There is a lot to go through here and in the end I think that the SEC wants their hands in the digital asset sector. They will continue to sue and bring FUD to the space until they figure out their own digital asset and can bring regulation to the space. You all know my opinion on the crypto space and the nature of decentralization. These events provide great buying opportunities.

Metals: Gold tested $1,938 again last week. The more times it tests this area the most likely it will break it. Needs to hold $1948 order block in order to try and move back to $2,000. Silver moved back to rested the $24.50s last week. I would look for silver to hold $23.40 to $23.60, if not then it will go retest the range lows of $22.61.

Energy: Natural Gas continues to put in higher lows and so would watch for it to hold the $2.16 low and needs to hold $2 for it to move up more. Still long term bullish on it and reference previous newsletters for my long term targets. Saudi Arabia oil giants agreed to cut oil production last week, so oil was a little volatile. Been in a range of $65 to $75 for a little bit.

DXY: The dollar has been rising over the past couple of weeks after building up the accumulation I spoke about. Right now there is a signal for a bullish divergence on the 1 hour chart. If that plays out then could see the dollar go to $105.50 this week. I would watch the current range and here are the areas that the dollar needs to break down for other asset areas to be bullish: 102.97, 102.77, 102.17, 101.84. Watch reactions at these levels.

Crypto Charts

Going to get right into the $BTC and $ETH charts.

$BTC

Summary / Points of interest short term:

$BTC needs to keep above $25.3k. It’s pretty simple. That is a very big area of support and if it loses that support then will move to my longer term points of interested in the $20k to $22k. You can see zones I’m watching on the upside as well and my notes I’ve created.

Points of interest in the long run

• If we lose $25.3k then we test the $20k to $22k. If we can hold $25.3k then liquidity has built up to move to test the highs over $30k.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• $BTC has been spending a lot of time in the red money flow and not much time in the green over the past week. Wait for a small trigger wave to be put in as BTC holds $25.5k to $25.7k. The RSIs look like they might come together on the low end which means we could see a move to the upside.

$ETH

Summary/Points of interest short term:

$ETH tested the low $1700s with the SEC FUD and the weekend selloff. Similar to $BTC, ETH needs to keep the $1723 area as support to move up higher. I could see a wick to $1683, but needs to keep candles closed within this major support level. As you can see some levels actually match up on the upside with FVG fill zones, Range POCs and S/R flip zone. I want to see how this week turns out, but I might change my long term bias because with all the FUD in the crypto space cannot hit some of these areas below, then I don’t know what other macro news can bring crypto down more.

Points of interest in the long run (hasn’t changed in a couple of weeks):

• Long term bias has not changed here. I think that we will retest this current point of control (red line on the chart) at $1550. That was the area where ETH was before the FTX collapse, so it’s a significant area of interest for people. We could wick back down to test liquidity in the $1485 area, but do not plan on it.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• Hourly money flow has spent a lot of time in the red over the past week versus in the green. Comparing it to $BTC this looks really similar. Wait for a trigger wave above $1723 and that means momentum is going up and looks like the money flow might head up that way into the green as well.

$LTC

Summary:

$LTC is an OG coin to the crypto space. When $BTC came out, $LTC was created later and everyone thought that $LTC would be the silver to the $BTC gold. Read more about Litecoin here

Long term outlook here, but I really like $LTC on the day chart which is represented above. I’m waiting for $LTC to put in a bullish divergence and will enter a long term long. If it loses the area of $77.80 then I’ll look at $68.60 area. You can see my daily and weekly support areas. Very simple chart here.

What Am I Currently Reading?

I am reading Wcykoff 2.0: Structures, Volume Profile and Order Flow by Ruben Villahermosa Chaves. This book goes in depth about when you should use order flow versus volume profile. I really enjoy using volume profile and it’s one of the tools that is underutilized in trading. Volume is very important especially volume at certain price levels.

Picture for the week:

I’ve been trying to take some time to sit outside and reflect at least once a week. Sometimes I look at charts or write the newsletter out here, but it is a time where I can understand and focus on what is important to me. I didn’t do this for a long time, I don’t really reflect a lot, but recently I’ve been reflecting on a lot of aspects in life and in work. Take time to reflect, journal and understand where you can improve in your life.

Trade from last week:

Here is one of my trades from last week that was successful. I was looking at $XRP on the 4 hour chart and it looked pretty bearish. I couldn’t crack the high of the day which was under big resistance and rode it down to the Daily POC area. Risked $70 on this trade.

I appreciate you reading the seventh edition of my newsletter. If you found this helpful, please share the subscribe link with anyone you think would find it helpful as well. Also, please email me any feedback, so I can continue to give you information that you want to read. Hope you have a great week. God bless.