BTC ETFs…..Gensler rumored to be leaving….SEC vs CRYPTO!

Good morning TORG Traders,

I have not been keeping up with the newsletter due to just having some other business items coming up recently. My consulting work is going well and I have failed to bring you updates. No matter how busy I get, I need to provide you the value here. Some weeks might be shorter than others, but you all deserve to get content from me, since you committed to signing up.

Happy 4th of July for the US folks out there as well!

TORG Trading Podcast

New episode to be uploaded next week. The first one from a NFT trader!

Macro News RESULTS from previous week!!

• Initial Jobless Claims

  • 239k versus 266k projected

• JPOWW spoke on back-to-back days. I did not tune in, so I am unsure of what he hit on, but from headlines he said that he’s okay with hiking in consecutive meetings later this year.

• Core PCE (JPOWW hammered on this at last FOMC Meeting) - 3.8% YoY versus 4.6% forecasted

• Headline PCE - 4.6% YoY versus 4.7% forecasted

• GDP - 2.0% versus 1.4% forecasted

Macro News to WATCH this week!!

FOMC meeting minutes released from last meeting. Be curious to read the minutes and get detailed information and make sure it is congruent with what JPOWW spoke about.

• FOMC Meeting Minutes Released - July 5th at 14:00 (2 pm for non-24 hour ppl)

• ADP Non Farm Employment Change - July 6th at 8:15 am

  • 250k forecasted versus 278k previous

• Initial jobless claims - July 6th at 8:30 am

  • 245k forecasted versus 239k previous

• Nonfarm Payrolls - July 7th at 8:30 am

  • 225k forecasted versus 339k previous

• Unemployment Rate - July 7th at 8:30 am

  • 3.7% forecasted versus 3.7% previous

Payroll data is “forecasted” to come in with lower jobs, but the unemployment rate is expected to be the same. Why wouldn’t the unemployment rate be higher if the data shows less jobs. Interesting position here and its what I’ll be watching this week.

Also, there are rumors that SEC Chair Gary Gensler is going to step down. I don’t think it will happen, but something that has been swirling around with this long holiday weekend.

Crypto News

Blackrock ($9.09 Trillion Dollar investment firm) filed again for a spot BTC ETF last week. They were using Coinbase as the custodial wallet as well as per the documents they submitted to the SEC. Shortly after Blackrock filed for their spot ETF more companies came out to re-file for spot BTC ETFs as well.

I would watch the narrative around BTC and ETH as headline news because when you pour gasoline on a fire then it gets bigger. I still think headline leads us to a bull run in 2024 for crypto.

Metals: Gold is in a clear downtrend since the first of May. Gold needs to reclaim 1932 to move up higher. If not it will go down to retest the lows of 1880s and if it cannot hold that range you’ll see 1860. No surprise that silver is following gold iwth a downtrend. Looks like support was found at 22.10 and created a lower high. Needs to go through $23.30 to move up to retest $24s.

Energy: CHINA IS BUYING NATURAL GAS LIKE IT’S GOING OUT OF STYLE!!!!! Seriously Natural Gas is still a dark horse. It just keeps accumulating. Near $2 its a buy. I’d look to start selling at $5.50 and then $8.00. Oil is just in a range from $67 to $74. Not much has changed. Watch for it to break out one way or the other. Range trading can be very profitable as well.

DXY: The dollar is putting in higher lows. I’m waiting to see if DXY tests 103.88 or 102.99. Just ranging in-between those areas.

Crypto Charts

I have spent the last couple of weeks simplifying my trading system. This week you’ll get some ranges I’m looking at on ETH and BTC on the 1 hour chart.

$BTC

Summary / Points of interest short term:

$BTC has seen a really strong rally recently. The lines on the chart is where I would look for longs unless this breaks the upper line above $31.5k. We have been testing this area for a while and the more times it gets tested, the likely it will break, but sometimes in order for price to move higher, there needs to be liquidity grabs.

Points of interest in the long run

• I’m not sure $BTC goes back under $25k at this point. If it does then a good entry would be at $21.6k to $22.6k, but this is not guaranteed at this point.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• $BTC been spending more time in the green then the red on the hourly timeframe. We are coming down where either the moneyflow bounces and stays green or it goes into the red. The RSIs are together right now and that is when they are strongest. VWAP getting ready to come up past the 0 line, so I’d say that we might be looking to go up again soon based on MC.

$ETH

Summary/Points of interest short term:

$ETH lagged the run up, but has rallied back now to start closing in on $2000. Again the blue lines are the points of interest where I’m looking for trades at the moment. I’m long bias until we get to that daily resistance area on the chart.

Points of interest in the long run:

• Long term $1690 to $1780 are really good entries. I don’t know if we see under $1500 for a long time.

What is Market Cipher telling us?

• Hourly money flow has spent a lot of time in the green then the red. Moneyflow looks to be curving back to the upside. RSIs are a little split, but they look like they might be coming back together to form some strength.

$OP

Summary:

$OP is a newer coin released in June 2022. The coin was airdropped for people who used the ecosystem and protocol. Optimism is a layer-two blockchain on top of ETH. Read more about Optimism here

I do like the accumulation that $OP is making here. I’d look for longs on the teal lines after you see liquidity being swept. If you zoom out here, you’ll see there is some opportunity in the long run.

What Am I Currently Reading?

I am reading Alpha Trader by Brent Donnelly. I’ll be on this one for at least a week or two. It’s so far a really good book and it’s about the mindset, methodology and mathematics of professional trading. He incorporates stores into this book, so it isn’t a dry trading book.

Picture for the week:

You not only have to work on your mindset, but really all aspects of your life. For the past couple of weeks, I cut out bread and sugar from my diet. I haven’t been going to the gym, but been doing home workouts here and there along with riding the bike. In April 2022 I was 220 lbs. I weighed in yesterday at 194 lbs and almost to the best shape I have ever been on.

Trade from last week:

Here is a trade from last week which was utilizing my new system I’ve been testing.

I appreciate you reading the eighth edition of my newsletter. If you found this helpful, please share the subscribe link with anyone you think would find it helpful as well. Also, please email me any feedback, so I can continue to give you information that you want to read. Hope you have a great week. God bless.